The Science, Challenges, and Future of Predicting Earthquakes
Published: (10/09/25)
BY OCEAN RESEARCH
Earthquakes are one of the most dangerous natural disasters because they can change the shape of the land and destroy homes in seconds. Even after decades of scientific work, accurately predicting earthquakes is still one of the hardest things to do in geoscience. People all over the world often ask if earthquakes can be predicted.
Seismology, which is the study of earthquakes and how seismic waves move, has come a long way. It has helped us learn more about how earthquakes work, how faults work, and how to assess risk. Scientists have come up with reliable ways to predict earthquakes and assess their risks, but they still can't predict earthquakes with exact times, places, and magnitudes.
This blog post gives a detailed look at efforts to predict earthquakes. It talks about what is currently possible, what research is being done, and how modern seismology is changing the way we think about seismic hazards.
What is an earthquake?
When energy is suddenly released in the Earth's crust, it creates seismic waves. Most earthquakes happen along fault lines, which are places where tectonic plates touch and move against each other.
Focus (Hypocenter): The spot deep underground where the earthquake starts.
The epicentre is the point on the Earth's surface that is directly above the focus.
Magnitude: A way to measure how much energy was released, usually using the Moment Magnitude Scale (Mw).
What causes earthquakes
1. The most common cause is the movement of tectonic plates.
2. Volcanic activity, which causes earthquakes when magma moves.
3. Earthquakes caused by human activity, such as mining, fracking, or filling reservoirs.
The first step to looking into ways to make predictions is to understand these causes.
What Sets Prediction Apart from Forecasting
People often get confused by two words when talking about earthquakes: A prediction is a clear statement of when, where, and how big an earthquake will be.
Forecasting: A statistical and fault study-based way to figure out how likely an earthquake is to happen over time.
Scientists can now make predictions about earthquakes with different levels of confidence, but they can't do it with 100% accuracy.
Past Efforts to Predict Earthquakes
People have tried to predict earthquakes by watching animals act strangely, changes in groundwater levels, or strange things happening in the air.
China (1975, Haicheng Earthquake): After foreshocks and strange signals, the government told people to leave. This is often used as an example of a "successful" prediction.
The Tangshan Earthquake in 1976 hit China without warning and killed hundreds of thousands of people, showing how hard it is to predict earthquakes.
These cases show both the good and bad sides of trying to predict earthquakes.
Methods Used Today to Predict Earthquakes
1. Models for Statistics
Seismologists use records of past earthquakes to figure out how likely it is that future earthquakes will happen. The Gutenberg-Richter law explains how magnitude and frequency are related, which is useful for making predictions.
2. Studies of Fault Zones
Scientists look at active faults to find out:
Rates of stress build-up.
History of slips.
Recurrence intervals (how often earthquakes happen on a certain fault).
For instance, people keep a close eye on the San Andreas Fault in California to see if it is getting stressed out.
3. Seismic Gaps
Along faults, places that haven't had earthquakes in a long time may show that stress is building up and that there may be more earthquakes in the future.
4. Monitoring for foreshocks
Foreshocks are smaller tremors that happen before some earthquakes. Keeping an eye on groups of seismic activity may help, but not all earthquakes have foreshocks.
5. Measurements of Ground Deformation
Scientists use GPS and InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) to measure ground movements with millimetre accuracy. This lets them see how strain builds up along faults.
Can we guess when earthquakes will happen?
The Short Answer is No, not yet. We can't currently predict earthquakes with exact time, place, and size.
The Scientific Explanation
Earthquake processes happen deep underground and involve a lot of stress interactions.
Fault systems are not linear, which means that even small changes can lead to unexpected results.
There are no universal precursor signals, such as foreshocks or gas emissions, that are always present before an earthquake.
But just because we can't predict doesn't mean we're not making progress. Seismologists are making quick progress in related fields.
The Most Recent Research in Seismology
1. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
AI models look for small patterns in huge datasets of seismic signals that could happen before earthquakes. Initial findings indicate that AI may enhance short-term forecasting.
2. Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS)
These systems don't make predictions, but they do pick up seismic waves right after an earthquake starts and send out alerts a few seconds before the shaking gets really bad.
For example, Japan's Earthquake Early Warning System has saved lives by giving people up to a minute of warning.
3. Deep Learning about Foreshocks
Researchers are looking into whether foreshocks have unique seismic "fingerprints" that can be found with advanced algorithms. This could make short-term alerts better if it is true.
4. Signals from electromagnetic and geochemical sources
Research examines irregularities in electromagnetic fields, radon gas emissions, and ionospheric variations preceding earthquakes. Results are still unclear, but they look good.
5. Earthquakes in the lab
Scientists use rock samples under high pressure in labs to mimic fault slip. These tests show small signals that could, in theory, come before natural earthquakes.
6. Analysis of Seismic Noise
Researchers can keep an eye on fault conditions in near real-time by using background vibrations, or "seismic noise." This could lead to better hazard models.
Mapping earthquake hazards and lowering risks
Scientists concentrate on hazard mapping and preparedness because precise prediction is still impossible.
The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) makes maps of areas where earthquakes are likely to happen.
Building codes: Making infrastructure more resistant to earthquakes.
Teaching communities how to get ready for and deal with earthquakes is part of public education.
Even without a prediction, these steps save lives.
Seismology Research Case Studies
Parkfield Experiment (California): Long-term monitoring of a fault segment to test prediction methods. Result: Better understanding, but no exact predictions.
Japan's Nankai Trough: A lot of research is being done on a major subduction zone that is likely to cause big earthquakes. Forecast models help people get ready for disasters.
These projects show that being ready is based on forecasting, not predicting.
The Future of Predicting Earthquakes
Seismology is still changing. There may be more breakthroughs in the future:
▪️AI's connection to global seismic networks.
▪️ Monitoring crustal stress from space.
▪️Quantum sensors that can find tiny changes in gravity before earthquakes.
▪️ Collaborations around the world are putting together seismic data for machine learning models.
Even though it may never be possible to make perfect predictions, safety will keep getting better thanks to early warnings, probabilistic forecasts, and advanced monitoring systems.
Things People Get Wrong About Predicting Earthquakes
1. "Animals can reliably predict earthquakes."
Unusual behaviour is seen, but it is not consistent or scientifically proven.
2. "Weather patterns can help us guess when earthquakes will happen."
Weather and tectonics are two things that don't have anything to do with each other.
3. "Scientists are concealing predictive technologies."
There is no scientific way to accurately predict when an earthquake will happen.
4. "Foreshocks always mean that a big earthquake is on the way."
A lot of foreshocks happen without causing bigger quakes.
Why it's important to predict earthquakes
Life and safety: Warnings that are right could save thousands of lives.
Protection of infrastructure: More knowledge helps keep bridges, dams, and cities safe.
Scientific progress: Learning more about earthquakes pushes the limits of physics and earth sciences.
Global preparedness: More than 100 million people are at risk of earthquakes every year, so making progress in predicting and forecasting is very important.
Therefore, can we guess when an earthquake will happen? The answer is still no, but not in the exact, short-term way that most people think. But modern seismology has made amazing strides in predicting probabilities, mapping hazards, and making systems to warn people ahead of time.
Scientists are getting closer than ever to finding reliable patterns thanks to improvements in AI, satellite monitoring, and seismic instruments. Even though perfect prediction may never be possible, ongoing research makes sure that societies are better prepared, protected, and able to bounce back from the inevitable future earthquakes.
Seismology is making earthquakes easier to understand and deal with, even though we can't predict them yet.